dc.description.abstracten |
Considering the importance of public procurement spending, we contend that pre-
diction of corruption risk is essential and allows a decrease in the amount of money
laundered from procurements. While several endeavours have been undertaken in
this regard, they predominantly rely exclusively on procurement data overlooking
externally available data. One such valuable source is beneficial ownership data that
can provide valuable insights. Currently, the EU countries have to provide public ac-
cess to this data and show who the real owner of the company is even when he or
she is hiding behind offshores, which gives extensive sets of verified data. Conse-
quently, this study seeks to explore the creation of features from publicly accessible
beneficial ownership registers and assess whether these features enhance the pre-
dictive accuracy of corruption risk models. It is also important to acknowledge even
with the incorporation of the red flags identificators, it remains challenging to defini-
tively label a specific tender as corrupt. Hence, we opt for a regression approach and
predict the corruption risk index with the usage of non-linear models. Notably, prior
research mostly relied on linear models for regression task. Therefore, this research
is one of a few attempts to utilise supervised ML algorithms to identify corruption
risk in public procurement. |
uk |